| Rob Reynolds, Two figures for generative AI: the calculator and the mad scientists assistant, Another queen sacrifice might be in the works, this time in Virginia. Have an amazing day!Music I May Have Used In The VideoFredji - Happy Life A Russian ballistic missiles guidance system fails and crash-lands into NATO member Poland, killing 34 civilians as it tragically lands into a populated village along the Polish-Ukraine border, Kazianis recalled about one scenario in the simulation. To Matt I'm sorry, and I' Facebook comments not loading? Sun 13 Mar 2022 08.46 EDT Last modified on Sun 13 Mar 2022 10.42 EDT. All rights reserved. When @BryanAlexander is futuring about you, youd better start futuring yer own dang self! A scenario is small story about a potential future. They send salvos that are so great that we cannot intercept all the missiles, Ochmanek said. The Russian . [F]uturist and higher-ed guru Bryan Alexander. March 1, 2023, 1:37 a.m. ", "Of course, we had no access whatsoever to classified information and often used 'simple' rules when allocating weapons to targets.". Long-term strategic competitions with China and Russia are the principal priorities for the Department, and require both increased and sustained investment, because of the magnitude of the threats they pose to U.S. security and prosperity today, and the potential for thosethreats to increase in the future, the strategy explains. The crucial early decision for Ukraine was what to do with the 17 to 20 battalions arrayed on the line of control in the Donbas area. Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. If history provides any glimpse into the future, the Russian army will eventually uncoil, absorb the wars early lessons, and renew its advance with grim determination. The images evoke scenes in Kyiv and Kharkiv as the Ukrainian cities face a growing Russian invasion. In the case of this particular wargame, its near concurrent use with the actual start of the war presents an opportunity to make constructive comparisons and contrasts. Its putting more combat power back into Europe, and putting it on Europes eastern flank, he said. Putin joined Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for a "major military . Putin joined Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for a major military cooperation event on February 19, by which point over 100,000 Russian troops had massed along Russias Ukrainian border. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. The United States intends to replace its existing fleet of Minuteman III missiles which came into service in the early 1970s with a new . Figure 5: Wargame Situation End of Game Day 3 Northern Front. A former Royal Air Force chief has warned a nuclear war is no longer unthinkable as Russia continues to escalate its assault on Ukraine. You are really sick sociopaths to play Gods and engineer futures. Below are ten infographics that break down the history, politics and economics of the Ukraine-Russia crisis. Futurist Stephen Aguilar-Milan ran two matrix game simulations with very different outcomes. According to Glaser, a global thermonuclear war on this scale could certainly be considered a "worst-case scenario", although the title of the video hints at the fact that the sequence of events shown is simply part of the standard playbook. We use your sign-up to provide content in ways you've consented to and to improve our understanding of you. AIR FORCE BUILDS NEW DEEP STRIKE 'SPY NETWORK' FOR AIR ATTACK. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. Multiple scenarios give us ways to see divergent possibilities. That's not true. In one a Russian invasion of Ukraine develops into war with NATO, and Moscows forces are ultimately defeated. The hope is that students will develop insights from these wargames that help them better understand joint warfighting. But, on the other hand, no one involved in this wargame has been much surprised by anything unfolding on the ground. The mapping scenario focuses on geography and the capturing of major cities, making it different from my usual videos. (U.S. Army photo by: Sgt Caitlyn Byrne, 10th Press Camp Headquarters). The Russian ambassador to the UK discusses the conflict in Ukraine, a year on. In February 2020, the Pentagon announced that the US had launched a simulated nuclear strike against Russia. Local children play in front of a church damaged during Russia's invasion of Ukraine in Kolychivka, Ukraine, April 27, 2022. Russia-Ukraine war latest; Mark Rice-Oxley @markriceoxley69. Patchy control. They added it was a limited response and did not say what type of target the US military had simulated attacking. A video claims to show war between Russia and Ukraine before the former had invaded the latter. In this video I play Eastern Theatre War Simulator a Roblox game where it is Russia Vs Ukraine. The more well-equipped and modernized units, he said, have moved into the area close to two breakaway provinces in Ukraine's east, where Russia instigated a separatist war in 2014 that continues . Research organization RAND has run dozens of wargames simulating major conflict scenarios in what it describes as Russia and Chinas backyards. The wargames suggest that the U.S. forces in those locations would get attacked by a vast array of both conventional and cyber weapons. Russia has more than 15,857 armored fighting . International Atomic Energy Agency in 24/7 response mode after fire at site of Ukrainian nuclear power plant, Vladimir Putin puts Russian nuclear forces on high alert, Noam Chomsky calls on Justin Trudeau to sign January 22's UN Nuclear Ban Treaty, Georgia Straight guide to the 34th annual Dancing on the Edge festival, Education: Upgrade your skills for a dramatically new world. James Lacey, Ph.D., holds the Horner Chair of War Studies at Marine Corps University. In terms of computer wargames, Operational Art of War IV apparently has some levels displaying Russian and Ukrainian armies at war. Note the chained sequences of effects, along with rating them for relative likelihood of occurring: A Bloomberg column considers three scenarios for how western economic sanctions could impact Russia and the world. 2023 FOX News Network, LLC. But the game differed in several major aspects from what most analysts expected prior to the war. Figure 4: Wargame Situation End of Game Day 3 Southern Front. The Ukrainian commander, in the wargame, decided to send three brigades from the city to counterattack into the flank of Russian armored forces. Market data provided by Factset. Videos can span from fixing the borders to mapping out war scenarios. This may include adverts from us and 3rd parties based on our understanding. The views expressed in this article are the authors own and do not express the views or positions of Marine Corps University, the U.S. Marine Corps, the Department of Defense, or any part of the U.S. government. I find scenarios help us think about futures usefully. Once again, the wargame matched actual Russian moves with uncanny accuracy. Russia must also now be considering next steps. Russia was preparing to do precisely that when the wargame ended. NATO then retaliates with a single, tactical, nuclear air strike. In the final stage of the conflict, both Russia and NATO target the 30 most populated cities and economic centers of the other sideusing 5-10 nuclear warheads on each depending on population sizein an attempt to inhibit the potential for recovery. Still, their forces are greatly outnumbered, particularly in the air. Join my discord server: https://discord.gg/A799aXy Support me on Patreon: https://www.patreon.c. 221 Nassau St., 2nd Fl. Kazianis is the director of defence studies at the Center for the National Interest, a think tank based in Washington DC. As the wargame ended, the Ukrainians were under pressure in the north, with Russian forces closing in on the eastern approaches to Kyiv and the Dnieper River, while also beginning to cross the border from Belarus into the northwest through the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. Crowd erupts in laughter at Russia's top diplomat after he claimed the Ukraine war 'was launched against us' An audience member shouted, "Come on!" . So, although the number of actual strikes made by the Russians in the conflicts first 24-hours tracked almost exactly to what was employed by the Russians in the wargame, the impact was substantially different. At least six Ukrainian battalions were overrun, and the remainder endured serious losses to aerial interdiction en route to the Dnieper. SGS developed a new simulation for a plausible escalating war between the United States and Russia using realistic nuclear force postures, targets and fatality estimates. Gotta love @BryanAlexanders ability to catalyze a conversation without leaning on hyperbole or triggers. Nesterivka, Ukraine. Market data provided by Factset. This appears to be exactly what the Russian forces have been attempting in the first 96-hours of the war. In our simulation NATO members closer to Russia, such as Poland and Hungary, were particularly worried that military action in Ukraine would lead to a large number of refugees - with potentially . Likewise, Russia carried out its own strategic nuclear drills just a matter of days before invading Ukraine. Indeed, it looks like the Biden administration took both simulations and scenarios seriously in their planning. For a sustained investment of an additional $8 billion a year between 2020 and 2030, the U.S. Air Force could buy the kit needed to make a difference, he said, noting that similar sums would be required for the Army and Navy. These same concerns appear to be driving the Ukrainians in the real fight. Based on a variety of wargame simulations, a clash with Russia in the Baltic states would result in the rapid defeat of U.S. forces and their allies. NAVY PLANS 'BLUE FORCE' OPEN WATER WEAPONS STRATEGY FOR NEW FRIGATE. Cyber activity will ramp up more before a physical war since it is being used as a tool in an attempt to disrupt and weaken countries. It is estimated that there would be more than 90 million people dead and injured within the first few hours of the conflict. In the actual conflict, there are recent reports of Ukrainian units moving off these lines suffering large losses, as the wargame predicted. Only in the south have we seen the Russians making the kind of rapid advances that were expected to take place throughout Ukraine. By Olena Harmash KYIV (Reuters) - When Russia invaded Ukraine a year ago, the shelves of the Novus supermarket chain in Kyiv quickly emptied as its . Putin was warned he could lose Chinese support if he goes nuclear. This project is motivated by the need to . Will Russia and Ukraine reach a peace settlement? Your email address will not be published. Legal Statement. The wargame also generated substantial discussion of what to do with the five brigades Ukraine has in the western part of the country. Quotes displayed in real-time or delayed by at least 15 minutes. Air Marshal Edward Stringer, former head of RAF intelligence, this week said a conflict involving the use of nuclear weapons will be weighing on the minds of those making difficult calculations at the moment. Thank you for your patience as we work towards bringing this back. As artifacts, they can appear in the form of playable materials (i.e., games) or as descriptions of a simulation being run. A post game analysis decided that it would have been better to keep the Ukrainian force in the city per the original plan and turn Kharkiv into a fortress city. War in Petropol . In the north, a Ukrainian brigade conducted a spoiling attack against Russian forces across the border in Belarus. He added that since the late Noughties, Russia has increasingly exercised its nuclear forces, both with live forces and also with tabletop forces. So if Putin did use them, it would be incredibly difficult for China to stand by him. A senior defence official told reporters at the Pentagon that Mark Esper, then-US Secretary of Defence, had played himself in the showdown. Hopefully a war between . In the two weeks prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Marine Corps University ran a four-day wargame to simulate the first several days of just such an invasion. Moreover, for all the heated talk about hybrid and grey zone warfare, this is a fight of blood and iron, in which Otto von Bismarck would have felt at home, something wargames are spectacularly good at simulating. Popular user-defined tags for this product: 2 Curators have reviewed this product. The defenses north of Kyiv had not broken and if supported they may have held for a considerable period. NATO carries out its own annual nuclear exercises, the most recent codenamed Steadfast Noon. File photo - Infantrymen of the 3rd Battalion, 69th Armored Regiment, 1st Brigade, 3rd Infantry Division, fire M1A2 System Enhancement Package Version 2 vehicles on Tapa Army Base, Nov. 13, 2015. Putin announced what he called a special military operation in Ukraine on February 24. But if Russia invades Ukraine in the coming days, it will be different from . (U.S. Army photo by: Sgt Caitlyn Byrne, 10th Press Camp Headquarters). But as the conflict continues and Russian frustrations grow over their failure to rapidly collapse Ukrainian resistance, one can expect the Russians to revert to type and start employing their overwhelming superiority in artillery and airpower much more indiscriminately. In another Russia successfully occupies Ukraine and the Baltic states, dealing NATO a major defeat. The consequences of a nuclear war for life on Earth would be "unimaginable", Glaser said. 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All fatality estimates are limited to acute deaths from nuclear explosions and would be significantly increased by deaths occurring from nuclear fallout and other long-term effects. 2023 Valve Corporation. In an intelligence update on Tuesday, the U.K. Ministry of Defense said that since the end of February, there has . One wonders if the Russian failure to employ their massive fires capacity to deliberately shape the battlefield over an extended period before the ground advance began will be marked by historians as a blunder. The GFP country comparison form is provided to allow you to make direct, side-by-side comparisons of any two world powers represented in the GFP database. Another difference was in the impact of the Russian air and missile campaign. Putin, and those advisers who still have his ear, may have been convinced many Ukrainians would welcome them as liberators and the march to Kyiv would be an easy one. If he used them, he would probably lose China.. RAND Senior Defense Analyst David Ochmanek discussed the simulations at the Center for a New American Security(CNAS) in Washington D.C. last week. Prior to the conflict one of the Wests great concerns was Russias much-vaunted cyber capabilities. "In addition to the immediate death and suffering and economic and societal collapse, in the years following the war, the phenomenon of nuclear winter would exacerbate the catastrophe," he said, pointing to one study which found that more than five billion people could eventually die from a nuclear conflict between the United States and Russia. First, the amount of fires employed in the wargame was only a fraction of what the Russians had available. If you want to see more war simulations, let me know in the comments. The Federation of American Scientists says online that these countries possessed roughly 12,700 warheads as of early-2022. Josh Calder shared this infographic with me, developing a sequence of events for three different ways forward: diplomacy, irregular war, and a conventional attack. He says he has a beard like one. By the time the wargame ended, the overall situation appeared very much as it does on the ground in Ukraine, with only two major deviations. It uses extensive data sets of the nuclear weapons currently deployed, weapon yields, and possible targets for particular weapons, as well as the order of battle estimating which weapons go to which targets in which order in which phase of the war to show the evolution of the nuclear conflict from tactical, to strategic to city-targeting phases. For their part, the U.S., EU and NATO have warned Russia that . These headquarters were just starting to come under intense pressure when the game ended. Published On 4 Mar 2023 4 Mar 2023 Biden, Scholz pledge to punish Russia over Ukraine war The public announcement of these exercises might be for one of two reasons, security expert Dr David Blagden told Express.co.uk. Ukraine and Russia explained in ten maps and charts. In fact, news reports indicate that is already happening. Liked it? In RANDs wargames and analysis, Russia, and particularlyChina, unleash so many missiles that they overcome U.S. defenses. Still, one hopes that Western pressure, and the infliction of unacceptable losses upon Putins legions will create an opening for a negotiated peace. It may turn out the Russian advance was slowed due to political directives, but, at the moment, many observers can fairly attribute much of what is being reported from the battlefield to general Russian incompetence. The exercise was called the NATO-Russia War of 2019. STRATFOR created several scenarios describing different Russian invasion strategies: The reality looks most like Hold East Ukraine. In 2020, Russia spent $61.7bn on its military which accounted for 11.4 percent of government spending. Mr Putin launched that attack after mass street protests in Ukraine that ousted pro-Russian . The intent of these orders was to lure Russias 8th Combined Arms Army into expending vast amounts of resources hitting empty positions, as the Ukrainians would have already fallen back to the Dnieper River. Simultaneously, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, while a massive military gamble for China, would also pose a huge challenge for U.S. forces in the area. Its aim is to highlight the "potentially catastrophic" consequences of a nuclear war between Russia and NATO. The selected countries for comparison, Russia and Ukraine, are displayed below in side-by-side format.The Primary selection is displayed in Blue while the Secondary selection is displayed in Red.Go back to compare two other military powers. PLAN A. SGS developed a new simulation for a plausible escalating war between the United States and Russia using realistic nuclear force postures, targets and fatality estimates. 72% 0. Also in the south, Russia has continued air, missile and artillery strikes in recent days, with targets including Zaporizhzhia City.Ukraine says it has also struck Russian positions in . As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its 374th day, we take a look at the main developments. By JAMEY KEATEN February 27, 2023. He continued: There was a time when they simulated bombing runs on Denmark or coming down the Baltic Sea. This defaults to your Review Score Setting. Russian ambassador to UK Andrey Kelin said the killing of civilians in Ukraines Bucha was staged by Ukrainian forces. Approximately 90 percent of all nuclear warheads are owned by Russia and the United States, who each have around 4,000 warheads in their military stockpiles; no other nuclear-armed state sees a need for more than a few hundred nuclear weapons for national security, the FAS notes. Speaking under condition of anonymity, the official said: They attacked us with a low-yield nuclear [warhead], and in the course of the exercise we simulated responding with a nuclear weapon., READ MORE:'Cataclysmic' history repeats itself as Russia set to default on debt. Despite a few stark differences, the current Russian offensive is playing out in ways eerily similar to that simulation. "I would not want to speculate how long it would take for humanity to recover," Glaser said. In an ironic reversal of the situation during the Cold War, NATO is now the dominant conventional coalition in Europe, while Russia is a weak state with a large but less powerful army. This may be where simulations and scenarios become useful. The immediate fatalities and casualties that would occur in each phase of the conflict are determined using data from NUKEMAP, an online tool that was developed by Alex Wellerstein at the Stevens Institute of Technology. (U.S. Army photo by: Sgt Caitlyn Byrne, 10th Press Camp Headquarters), Chilling World War III 'wargames' show US forces crushed by Russia and China. First, the Russians have pushed harder out of Belarus to the west of the Dneiper north of Kyiv to strike the city from the rear. DON'T MISS:Vladimir Putin's 'emotional chaos' childhood laid bare[INSIGHT]Russia defied by Finland: 'Clearly a part of the West'[EXCLUSIVE]Putin wanted 'anti-EU' alliance with UK before Ukraine invasion[EXPERT]. In 2019, Harry J. Kazianis participated in an American simulation of a war between Russia and the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization. And secondly, the Russian assault in Kherson was temporarily halted, as the axis of advance in the south for a time turned northeast toward Mariupol. Before NATO can impose its no-fly zone, Putin orders strikes on any remaining airfields and military assets around Lviv, Kazianis related. This is the first of all strategic questions and the most comprehensive. What Ukraine must figure out now is Russias likely next moves, as Putin concludes that his invasion is not going to be a modern day Anschluss. On this channel you can expect to see a large variety of mapping content! Side-by-side comparison showcasing the relative conventional fighting strengths of Russia and Ukraine for the year 2023. ET, November 22, 2022 Ukraine expresses outrage after Hungarian prime minister's scarf shows western Ukraine as part of . The 36-minute video ( here ) was . A NATO statement in October said: Steadfast Noon involves training flights with dual-capable fighter jets, as well as conventional jets, backed by surveillance and refuelling aircraft. American space assets could also face attacks, while U.S. command and control systems could be targeted by electromagnetic and cyber weapons. The nuclear exchange quickly escalates in Europe with Russia sending 300 warheads via aircraft and short-range missiles to hit NATO bases and advancing troops. In a wartime scenario, Russian and Belarusian forces . March 2, 2022. Josh Calder created another infographic, this time of what might result from the war. While many observers were surprised by the Russian approach, it was the course of action chosen by the Russian player in the game. Three days later on February 27, the Russian leader put his countrys nuclear forces on high alert, saying NATO officials have made aggressive statements. Beyond Ukraine, how might the war expand to other nations, such as those to Russias east? Editors note: Dont miss our comprehensiveguide to Russias war against Ukraine. Dr Blagden, a senior lecturer in international security at the University of Exeter, said political reasons and genuine preparation would both come into play. A Foreign Affairs article offers a range of outcomes following Russian success in Ukraine. Fears remain that Moscow will launch a nuclear strike on Ukraine. In the game, Russian operations began with a series of missile and airstrikes, aimed at eliminating Ukraines air force and destroying the countrys integrated air defense system. Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window). Ukrainian resistance is not yet at the point where one can make comparisons to Finlands courageous stand against Stalins Red Army in the 1940 Winter War, but the possibility of Ukraine holding out for weeks or months must now be part of everyones calculations, including the Russians. s ability to catalyze a conversation without leaning on hyperbole or triggers. President Trumps fiscal 2020 budget plan proposes $750 billion for defense, up 5 percent from fiscal 2019. We speak to six young Russians about the devastating conflict, which has entered a second year. ADVERTISEMENT. Thus, the Russian players primary focus, during the first few days of the campaign, was aimed at gaining freedom of maneuver in the skies air dominance along with destroying Ukraines coastal defense systems. On the other side of the world, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, while a massive military gamble for China, would also pose a huge challenge for U.S. forces in the area, according to Ochmanek. Simply use the dropdowns below to select your global powers. Some of that force was moved north to the Belarussian border in case of a secondary Russian assault out of western Belarus, but most of it was ordered east to help defend Kyiv and to bolster the Dnieper defense. This video is a war simulation between Ukraine and Russia.This video was not made to offend anyone! The war that erupted in eastern Ukraine in 2014 has already left 14,000 dead and an estimated 1.4 million displaced. Primary initial targets in the wargame were Ukrainian S-300 systems around Kyiv, the Dnieper River bend, Kherson, and Odessa. As the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues, many wonder how it might conclude. Before its weapon systems are destroyed, Russia fires missiles launched from silos, road-mobile vehicles, and submarines. Interestingly, the article breaks down pros and cons, concluding that such an invasion should be unlikely to occur. If Putin chooses to use a nuclear weapon, experts say he could end up being the master of his own demise. Ukraine's economy stabilizes after shock of war. Several scenarios via the excellent Naked Capitalism blog. Today's video presents a war simulation, which maps out a war between Russia and Ukraine. Between Russia and the US alone, scientists concluded a nuclear war would kill 3.1 million people within 45 minutes. Sign in to add this item to your wishlist, follow it, or mark it as ignored. Likewise, Russia carried out its own strategic nuclear drills just a matter of days before invading Ukraine. The Plan A simulation was originally prepared for an exhibition at Princeton's Bernstein Gallery in 2017 and was later made available to the public as a YouTube video in 2019.